Forecasting economic indicators using a consumer sentiment index: Survey‐based versus text‐based data

Given the confirmed effectiveness of the survey‐based consumer sentiment index (CSI) as a leading indicator of real economic conditions, the CSI is actively used in making policy judgments and decisions in many countries. However, although the CSI offers qualitative information for presenting current conditions and predicting a household's future economic activity, the survey‐based method has several limitations. In this context, we extracted sentiment information from online economic news articles and demonstrated that the Korean cases are a good illustration of applying a text mining technique when generating a CSI using sentiment analysis. By applying a simple sentiment analysis based on the lexicon approach, this paper confirmed that news articles can be an effective source for generating an economic indicator in Korea. Even though cross‐national comparative research results are suited better than national‐level data to generalize and verify the method used in this study, international comparisons are quite challenging to draw due to the necessary linguistic preprocessing. We hope to encourage further cross‐national comparative research to apply the approach proposed in this study.     

网络计划最低费用日程的一种新解法

根据网络计划的特点,在求解其最低费用日程时,引入最小割的概念,从而改进了该问题的求解方法。文中给出了解决问题的算法流程,并附有算例.此法运用较简便,且易于计算机计算,自动化水平高,因而便于有关人员采用.     

Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

广东实施峰谷电价及其效果探讨

研究了广东省的峰谷电价政策及其实施效果。通过对佛山市某些典型大工业用户依据电价政策变化而进行的负荷调整情况的分析表明峰谷电价新政策在一定程度上促使了企业进行生产的重新安排以减少电费开支，并在总体上促进了电力消费。     

关于银行卡用卡环境问题的探讨

主要从发卡银行、特约商户、持卡消费者否个方面对目前我国银行卡用卡环境中的不良现象进行了分析,并提出了一些解决的方法。     

ISAT方法在射流火焰PDF计算中的应用

描述了一种应用于湍流反应流场中，用以减少化学反应计算时间的有效方法——当地自适应建表方法，并对之做了改进，使其可以适用于变时间步长环境下的计算流场．应用此方法计算甲烷／空气湍流射流扩散火焰问题，结果显示同直接数值积分方法比较，当地自适应建表方法可以在保证满足计算精度要求的条件下有效的减少化学反应计算时间．     

“Q宠宝贝”带来的思考

对腾讯公司推出的电子宠物——“Q宠宝贝”受宠现象进行分析。总结出其营销成功的主要原因:迎合消费者的各种消费心理,并逐一说明。     

并行工程计划问题的模糊网络分析方法

基于网络流模型,本文提出了确定模糊网络关键路线的参数线性规划方法,并给出了反映决策者偏好信息的模糊网络关键路线和工程模糊完工期的隶属函数形式,从而得到了模糊网络关键路线性质的更全面结果。最后,针对模糊环境下的并行工程计划问题,给出了模糊网络的分析方法。     

流动性约束对我国农村居民消费行为的影响

引用了Jappelli，Tullio和Marco Pagano（1994）研究流动性约束的模型，并在模型中加入了反映制度变迁因素的解释变量，选择了1987-2001年间我国25个省份农村居民的收支等相关数据，对我国农村居民消费面临的流动性约束程度进行了定量测算，并在对金融市场不完善所带来的流动性约束给农村居民消费行为造成的影响进行分析的基础上，提出了相应的政策建议。     

动物品种优序决策的多层次模糊数学综合评判

为克服单层次的模糊综合评判产生结论不易区分、评价失效的缺陷，给出了多层次模糊综合评判的数学模型，结合动物品种优选排序研究，将众多因素剖分为若干子因素集，在单层次评判基础上，进行高层次的综合评判，获得了优选排序的研究结果。最后采用两种不同的模糊合成算子，映证了优序决策的同一性。